This podcast episode comes directly from our Youtube Channel. On this Happy Hour with Traders Video, I brought together some of the best minds when it comes to stock market breadth. You see all the breadth charts on twitter and you always hear debate about whether market breadth is weakening or improving. I think this round table discussion clears up a lot of misconceptions about the subject. I think it also gave each of us new ideas about how to approach the market from a weight-of-the-evidence perspective. I know I definitely got some new ideas that I want to start to do some more work on.
This is why we have these conversions. I’m fortunate to have really smart friends around the world that all view markets in their own unique ways. So I’m going to try my best to show them off so you can learn from them too!
Here’s the latest Happy Hour with special guests Andrew Thrasher, Willie Delwiche, Mike Hurley and Steve Strazza. Enjoy!
This week I was a guest on the Confessions of a Market Maker Podcast. This was a really fun discussion about Dow Theory, Perma-Bears, Fibonacci & optimal wine/food pairings. I think it will give you a chance to get to me a little more. Life isn’t just about charts and markets!
Jeff Macke is the guy I turn to whenever I have questions about the Consumer. Anything retail, restaurants, internet sales, he’s the one we want to listen to. Jeff and I have known each other for many years and are friends with a lot of the same people. On my Youtube Channel, you can find an old clip of him and I talking about Gold & Silver back in January 4, 2012.
In this episode we talk about the restaurant stocks, pharmacies, which areas he wants to avoid and which ones he wants to own. He says the pair trade of the decade could very well be: Long Shaquille O’neil (Papa Johns $PZZA) and Short Kanye West (The Gap $GPS). This was a really fun conversation. I picked up some good ideas and had a few laughs. I hope you enjoy!
Annie Duke is the author of one of my favorite books, “Thinking In Bets”. I often find myself recommending it to both colleagues and friends and family who aren’t even in our business. While the book might be written by a poker player, and is somewhat about poker, it’s really about the way we think, and this applies to market participation, but also life in general. It’s a book I believe everyone should read, at least once.
In this podcast episode, I asked Annie about the differences between being humble in the face of the game we’re playing vs being humble in the face of your opponent. This is a really important concept that really helps put things in perspective.
Behavioral Finance in general, as my friend Phil Pearlman puts it, is very descriptive in nature. We are quick to judge and describe, while prescriptive models, at least in this field, have taken a back seat. So Annie provides a few different things we can do to continue to improve and become more self-aware. She says that there is no “cure”, but even incremental improvements can compound over time. She is also coming out with a new book in September of 2020 that you can pre-order here: “How To Decide: Simple Tools For Making Better Choices”. She says this is also prescriptive because of the workbook portion that is included
This was a really amazing conversation that could have gone on for hours and hours. This is her favorite topic to talk about and it’s certainly near the top of my personal list. But we got through a lot of material in a short period of time, so definitely make sure to give this one a listen!
I want to thank Annie Duke for being a guest on the podcast. This one really meant a lot to me! I hope you enjoy our conversation as much as I did.
We just got back from 6 days in India and I think it will add some value to give you some perspective on the kinds of things we learned. Sean McLaughlin is our Chief Options Strategist and had never been to Asia before. This was an eye opening experience for him and one that reiterated a lot of important things I noticed in my prior visits to Mumbai. We attended a CMT Conference, we filmed a documentary on Indian Options Trading, we ate some of the best food this planet has to offer, we hung out with some of the nicest and coolest people know and got to learn a ton from everything around us. I love going to Mumbai and it’s so nice to see the rest of the gang enjoyed their time there as well. I always feel so welcomed by everyone. I can’t wait to go back! I hope this podcast helps shed some light on how much we enjoyed the trip and maybe that encourages you to make the voyage out there soon as well!
Andrew Thrasher is the person I turn to whenever I have questions about Volatility and the $VIX. I know he tracks the data much more closely that I do and he does a good job of simplifying what may seem like complicated concepts. With the current market environment pricing in very low volatility moving forward, one can argue there is too much “complacency” towards stocks. Historically, corrections are sparked from this sort of setup. Who better to bring on to the podcast for this special Volatility Episode than Andrew Thrasher, winner of the 2017 Dow Award for his paper on Forecasting a Volatility Tsunami. In this conversation we talk about the current volatility regime, the VIX curve looking out into early 2020 and how he incorporates breadth data to supplement his volatility analysis. I really enjoyed this conversation and it seems like the perfect time to talk about Volatility!