Andrew Thrasher is the person I turn to whenever I have questions about Volatility and the $VIX. I know he tracks the data much more closely that I do and he does a good job of simplifying what may seem like complicated concepts. With the current market environment pricing in very low volatility moving forward, one can argue there is too much “complacency” towards stocks. Historically, corrections are sparked from this sort of setup. Who better to bring on to the podcast for this special Volatility Episode than Andrew Thrasher, winner of the 2017 Dow Award for his paper on Forecasting a Volatility Tsunami. In this conversation we talk about the current volatility regime, the VIX curve looking out into early 2020 and how he incorporates breadth data to supplement his volatility analysis. I really enjoyed this conversation and it seems like the perfect time to talk about Volatility!
Robert Sluymer has been a Technical Analyst for close to 3 decades. I really enjoy his intermarket, global macro perspective and the way he brings it all together in a similar way to what we do at our shop. It was hard for me to really disagree with anything Rob said during this podcast episode. It seems to me like him and I are on the same page on many levels. I didn’t make it easy on him, but he certainly brought the goods. I really enjoyed this episode from someone who brings 27 years of institutional experience at RBC and is now at an independent shop at Fundstrat. We discussed Bitcoin, the S&P500, Sector Rotation, Bonds and Precious Metals. This was a good one! Give it a listen
I’ve been following the work Willie Delwiche for years. As both a CFA and CMT Charterholder, I think it helps him really put things in perspective for the Advisors he works with at RW Baird. I really enjoyed the conversation we had about the markets and his process. Willie incorporates a number of breadth and sentiment measures that I’ve always been a fan of. He helps the Investment Advisors at the firm work with their clients and manages several portfolios as well. In this podcast episode we discuss a number of different things from Interest Rates to Gardening. It was fun to get to know Willie a bit more!
Raoul Pal is someone whose work I’ve admired for years, both for his global macro perspective on the markets and the amazing job he and his team have done with Real Vision. I like how they’ve removed a lot of the conflicts of interest that come with traditional media reporting and the sensationalizing that comes along as a result.
As a Macro Analyst, he does a lot of intermarket, or “cross-asset”, analysis. Raoul and I see the world through a similar lens. One area where we differ is in our experiences throughout our careers and how that’s shaped our view points and biases. I really enjoyed that part of the conversation. As far as current markets are concerned, Raoul thinks that negative rates in the U.S. are a real possibility. He’s pointing out 30+ year trends in the bonds market. We discuss Bonds as well as a wide variety of topics in this episode.
I really want to thank Raoul for coming on. He was an excellent guest. Make sure to follow him on Twitter @RaoulGMI
Connie Brown is the author of one of the first books I ever read on Technical Analysis. She was the one who inspired me to use Momentum as a supplement to price behavior, particularly the Relative Strength Index (RSI). It was Connie Brown who taught me how to think outside the box and question the default settings on traditional charting software. It’s that next level thinking that has helped me grow throughout my career. It is a real treat for me to have her on the podcast and I think she is a great compliment to some of the other guests we’ve had on over the years. In this conversation we go back to the stock market panics of the 1800s, go over different global indexes and how to use them to make decisions in our own markets. If you’re interested in Technical Analysis at all and want to learn how to think about things a little differently, this is the podcast episode for you!
This week we have a special treat on the podcast. Denise Shull is a Performance Coach and founder of The ReThink Group. She is widely believed to be the inspiration for the character WendyRhoades on the Showtime series Billions. We have a lot of different perspectives on the podcast all revolving around the behavior of the market and its participants. In this episode we focus more on the behavior of the participants themselves and why traders do the things they do. Denise shares stories about different clients she has and the ways they overcome things like loss aversion, being too aggressive and not being aggressive enough. We discuss the differences between male and female traders, the advantages women have in this field and reasons why there are so few women on Wall Street. I really enjoyed this conversation because I think it’s important to understand that there are real humans on the other side of our trades. Even if they are algos built by humans, the people are still there and it’s important to understand their side. One of the best things she said was about how regardless of our strategy, we need to remember that the ultimate goal is to figure out why someone would pay a higher price in the future for the stock you’re buying now. We want to think about what they’re thinking. Give it a listen. It’s a good one!