Annie Duke is the author of one of my favorite books, “Thinking In Bets”. I often find myself recommending it to both colleagues and friends and family who aren’t even in our business. While the book might be written by a poker player, and is somewhat about poker, it’s really about the way we think, and this applies to market participation, but also life in general. It’s a book I believe everyone should read, at least once.
In this podcast episode, I asked Annie about the differences between being humble in the face of the game we’re playing vs being humble in the face of your opponent. This is a really important concept that really helps put things in perspective.
Behavioral Finance in general, as my friend Phil Pearlman puts it, is very descriptive in nature. We are quick to judge and describe, while prescriptive models, at least in this field, have taken a back seat. So Annie provides a few different things we can do to continue to improve and become more self-aware. She says that there is no “cure”, but even incremental improvements can compound over time. She is also coming out with a new book in September of 2020 that you can pre-order here: “How To Decide: Simple Tools For Making Better Choices”. She says this is also prescriptive because of the workbook portion that is included
This was a really amazing conversation that could have gone on for hours and hours. This is her favorite topic to talk about and it’s certainly near the top of my personal list. But we got through a lot of material in a short period of time, so definitely make sure to give this one a listen!
I want to thank Annie Duke for being a guest on the podcast. This one really meant a lot to me! I hope you enjoy our conversation as much as I did.
We just got back from 6 days in India and I think it will add some value to give you some perspective on the kinds of things we learned. Sean McLaughlin is our Chief Options Strategist and had never been to Asia before. This was an eye opening experience for him and one that reiterated a lot of important things I noticed in my prior visits to Mumbai. We attended a CMT Conference, we filmed a documentary on Indian Options Trading, we ate some of the best food this planet has to offer, we hung out with some of the nicest and coolest people know and got to learn a ton from everything around us. I love going to Mumbai and it’s so nice to see the rest of the gang enjoyed their time there as well. I always feel so welcomed by everyone. I can’t wait to go back! I hope this podcast helps shed some light on how much we enjoyed the trip and maybe that encourages you to make the voyage out there soon as well!
Andrew Thrasher is the person I turn to whenever I have questions about Volatility and the $VIX. I know he tracks the data much more closely that I do and he does a good job of simplifying what may seem like complicated concepts. With the current market environment pricing in very low volatility moving forward, one can argue there is too much “complacency” towards stocks. Historically, corrections are sparked from this sort of setup. Who better to bring on to the podcast for this special Volatility Episode than Andrew Thrasher, winner of the 2017 Dow Award for his paper on Forecasting a Volatility Tsunami. In this conversation we talk about the current volatility regime, the VIX curve looking out into early 2020 and how he incorporates breadth data to supplement his volatility analysis. I really enjoyed this conversation and it seems like the perfect time to talk about Volatility!
I was lucky to spend a few weeks in Europe earlier this month meeting with customers, colleagues and old friends. For me it’s easy to get up in front of a crowd and talk about the charts that I’ve been staring at every day for over a decade. I can practically draw them for you at this point. Where I really win is in meeting with investors and traders from completely different cultures both before and after my events. I just got back from a trip to Athens, London, Paris, Amsterdam and Dublin. Between meetings, interviews and presentations, I was able to learn a lot from other investors and gain new perspective on things. That’s the point of all this. If we’re not going out of our way to learn, then what are we doing?
In this conversation, I sit down with our very own Sean McLaughlin to talk about some of my experiences on the road.
Last week I was in London giving a presentation at the local chapter of the CMT Association. We had a great turnout and they asked a lot of really smart questions. I was not surprised at all by the high caliber of attendees, from Analysts to Portfolio Managers and even younger participants eager to learn. It was awesome all around.
Prior to the event I sat down with Alex Spiroglou to talk about how I first got into Technical Analysis and what a normal day at ASC Research looks like. This is the full audio of that interview.